上海市闵行区大气污染与居民日死亡关系的时间序列研究

A Time-series Study on the Association of Air Pollution and Mortality in Minhang District,Shanghai

[目的]分析大气污染对居民每日死亡的急性效应。[方法]采用时间序列的广义相加模型（GAM），在控制了时间的长期趋势、季节趋势、周效应、气象因素等混杂因素的基础上，研究上海市闽行区2001年1月1日～2004年12月31日大气污染与居民日死亡的关系。[结果]大气中可吸入颗粒物（PM10）、二氧化硫（SO2）以及二氧化氮（NO2）的日均浓度每增加10μg／m^3，对应居民死亡相对危险度分别为1．0030（95％CI：1．0005～1．0055）、1．0123（95％CI：1．0051～1．0195）和1．0126（95％CI：1．0059～1．0194）。[结论]上海市闵行区大气污染物PM10、NO2、SO2的浓度变化对居民日死亡人数有影响。

[ Objective ] To assess the acute effect of air pollution on daily mortality. [ Methods ] All death records of the deceased who lived in Minhang District of Shanghai from January 1, 2001 to December 31, 2004 were collected. A time series approach with Generalized Additive Models（ GAM ）was used to study the association between air pollution and daily mortality with adjustment for long term trends, season trends, day of the week and weather variables. I Results ] An increase of 10 μg/m^3 of PM10, SO2 and NO2 corresponds to 1.0030（ 95%CI： 1.0005-1.0055 ）, 1.0123 （ 95%CI： 1.0051-1.0195 ）and 1.0126 （ 95%CI： 1.0059-1.0194 ）relative risk of mortality respectively. [ Conclusion ] Air pollution affects mortality rate in Minhang District, Shanghai.