集装箱船舶大型化对中国班轮运输的影响

The Outlook of Large Container Ships in China's Liner Shipping Market

通过竞争情报分析提供了各班轮公司未来船队结构和运力的变化趋势,由此观察到各班轮公司为了降低自身的营运成本,在最近几年大量订购超巴拿马型甚至更大型的集装箱船舶参与运输,但是却不能达到其预期的规模效应。原因就在于相当一部分成本随着船型的增大而线性增加,规模不经济。我们探讨了中国的班轮运输市场的几个重要特点:中外贸易的不平衡导致了货源的不平衡;未来贸易结构的调整会影响航线的布局和调派;贸易上的不稳定因素使班轮公司遇到外在的风险。这些特点会深远地影响集装箱船舶大型化的经济受益,相反的,集装箱船舶大型化的趋势也会加剧这些负面的影响,危及整个班轮运输市场。

The future fleet structures and capacity development trends of liner shipping companies are presented though competition information analysis. It is seen that in order to lower down operation cost liner shipping companies have ordered a large number of post-panamax or even bigger container ships joining fleet, but expected economy of scale has not been achieved, The reason is that a large portion of cost is linearly increasing with vessel type and diseconomy of scale is created. In particular, several main characteristics of the China＇ s liner shipping market are revealed ： the imbalance of the trade between China and foreign countries results in the imbalance of goods supply; the adjustment of future trade structure influences the layout and allocation of shipping routes ; the unstable factors in trade expose liner shipping companies to external risks. These characteristics will deeply affect the economic benefits of large-size container ships. On the contrary, the trend of large-size container ships may strengthen these negative impacts and finally jeopardize the whole liner shipping market.