山区公路地质灾害减灾决策支持系统——以西藏古乡沟泥石流为例

Decision support system for mitigating geological disaster along highway in mountainous area——A case study in Guxiang Gully,Tibet

由于复杂地形条件和地质条件以及降雨、地下水等因素的影响,山区公路易受到泥石流、滑坡、崩塌、溜砂坡等地质灾害的危害。文章在对山区公路地质灾害模型研究和分析的基础上,建立了滑坡稳定性分析、泥石流活动性分析、泥石流危险范围预测与危险性分区、滑坡区公路整治方案优选、拦砂坝优化设计等灾害分析模型和减灾决策模型,通过数据库、分析模型和决策模型的集成,建立了基于组件式GIS的山区公路地质灾害减灾决策支持系统。作为系统应用的实例,文章最后讨论了系统在古乡沟泥石流危险范围预测的应用,预测了一定条件下泥石流堆积扇上的泥深,泥石流运动过程中出现的最大泥深、最大速率、最大动量和最大动能,为古乡沟泥石流的预防和治理提供了科学依据。

Owing to easy to be damaged such contributing factors as rough terrain, rainfall and underground water, part of Tibetan highways are by geological hazards such as debris flow, landslide, rock collapse and sand-slide slope. In this paper, based on the study and analysis of models of geo-hazards along mountainous highways, the models of disaster analysis and disaster reduction decision including landslide stability analysis, debris flow activity analysis, prediction and zoning of dangerous area of debris flow, selection of optimal highway rebuilding scheme in landslide region, and optimized design of disaster control engineering are established. Through the integration of database, analysis models and decision models, the disaster reduction decision support system against disasters along highways in mountainous area, which is based on COMGIS, is set up. Finally, as an example of system application, the prediction of endangered area of Guxianggou debris flow is discussed and some factors including deposit depth, maximum mud depth, maximum momentum and maximum kinetic energy during debris flow movement are predicted.