竹笋万纹象发生期预测预报技术研究

Study on the Technologies of Forecasting and Predicting of Otidognathus rubriceps

1998-2002年在福建省永安市对竹笋万纹象成虫上笋高峰期、老熟幼虫的下地高峰期与毛竹出笋高峰期、留笋平均高、新竹展枝进度等物候关系进行系统观察，结果表明，采用产笋高峰期预测竹笋万纹象成虫上笋危害高峰期。两者之间期距为8d；建立的预测模型Y=5．6—0．0236X（式中：Y为当日与成虫上笋高峰日期距，X为留笋平均高）可以预测成虫上笋高峰期。其误差在2d以内；以新竹第3轮新枝展开30％预测老熟幼虫下竹高峰期，经检验预测误差为1d。

The correlations among the peak of adults＇ climbing the bamboo shoots, the peak of old larva＇ digging the earth and the peak of producing the bamboo shoots, the average height of preserved bamboo shoots, the progress of new bamboo＇ spreding branches were observed in Yong＇ an Fujian from 1998 to 2002. The results showed that the date interval between the peak of producing the bamboo shoots and the peak of the adults＇ climbing the bamboo shoots was 8 d by using the former to forecast the latter. The forecast model, Y= 5.6 - 0.0236X （Y is the date interval between the date and the peak of the adults＇ climbing the bamboo shoots, and X is the average height of preserved bamboo shoots）, was established and would be used to forecast the peak of the adults＇ climbing the bamboo shoots with the error of less than 2 d. Using the standard that the new bamboo spreading 30 % of the new branches, we forecasted ＂the peak of the adults＇ leaving the bamboo shoots with the error of less than 1 d.