摘要
在识别和计算所有入流和出流成分的基础上,建立了涨渡湖的水平衡方程和模型,分析了当前平常年该湖的总水量增减状况。然后,在气候变化研究以及由此归纳出的未来可能出现的气候变化情景下,对2030、2050、2080和2100年的年度湖水位变化趋势进行了预测,同时对未来可能出现的干旱和极端干旱情景进行了水的可获得性(可用性)风险分析。
Based on the identification and calculation of all inflow and outflow components of Zhangdu Lake, a water balance equation and model is constructed and used to analyse the water balance situation for a current average year. Then, potential climate change scenarios in the future are summarised in the light of studies on climate change, and the trends of annual water level variation in the lake in 2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100 are predicted. In addition, risks on water availability in dry and extremely dry scenarios in the future are analyzed and discussed.
出处
《水利水电快报》
2006年第24期67-79,共13页
Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information
关键词
长江流域
涨渡湖
水平衡方程
气候变化
极端气候事件
风险分析
Yangtze Basin
Zhangdu Lake
water balance equation
climate change
extreme climate events
risk analysis
