鄂西林地可燃物含水率及火险等级的气象预报研究

Meteorological Prediction of the Forest Fuel Moisture and Fire Danger Ratings

利用气象要素对森林火险等级进行预测预报,用回归方法建立森林可燃物含水率预报方程,将其预报值代替实测值。经森林地被可燃物含水率的实测预报对比验证分析,结果表明:气象要素日平均相对湿度、日最高气温、日照时数和晴雨等4个因子与当日可燃物的含水率相关程度最佳,该方法具有很好的预报效果,完全能代替森林可燃物含水率的实测值。

This paper studied the meteorological factor to predict the forest-fire danger ratings and made use of the regression method to establish the equation on the forest fuel moisture and the predicted value substituted for the true value. The result showed that predictable equation for the water content ratio of forest flammables could be established by regression meshthod based on daily average relative humidity, daily highest temperature , daily sunshine hour , fine and rainy condition. This was a good method to predict FFDR, which could take place of the true value of the forest fuel moisture. The method was accurate, practical, maneuverabile and it has an extensive prospect.