外国直接投资与中国资本外逃关系的实证分析

Empirical Study on the Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Capital Flight in China

基于外国直接投资与资本外逃关系的理论,采用G ranger因果关系和协整检验方法,分析了外国直接投资与中国资本外逃之间的关系。研究表明:外国直接投资与中国资本外逃之间存在着显著性很强的正相关,资本外逃引起了外国直接投资,同时,中国资本外逃与外国直接投资存在长期稳定的关系。最后据此结果,提出了相应的政策启示。

Based on the theory of the relationships between foreign direct investment （FDI） and capital flight, the paper analyzes the relationship between FDI and capital flight in China, using the methods of Granger causality and co - integration test. Research shows that positive correlation exists between FDI and capital flight in China, and it is capital flight which causes foreign direct investment. Meanwhile the relationship between FDI and capital flight will keep steady in a long time. Some implications in policy are put forward according to the results.