用应变积累释放模型浅析山西地区地震活动特点

Primary Analysis on Seismicity Characteristic in Shanxi Using Strain Accumulation and Release Model

通过对山西地区历史地震地震活动性和应变能积累释放过程进行分析,得出,山西地区现在正处在应变能释放阶段,这一阶段可能持续80 a^90 a左右,在此期间将会发生5级~6级左右的地震;通过对现代3.0级地震两方面的分析得出,山西地区现在正处在能量主要积累阶段,估计在未来2 a^3 a之内,有发生4级以上地震的可能。

Through the analysis on seismicity and process of accumulation and release of strain energy of historical earthquakes in Shanxi, it is found that Shanxi region is just in the phase of strain energy release, which may last about 80- 90 years, during which earthquakes from M5 to M6 may occur. Also, through the analysis on modern earthquakes of M≥3, it is found that Shanxi is in the phase of primary accumulation of energy and that earthquakes of M≥4 might occur in the 2-3 years to come.