投资宏观调控的决策模型:从区域乘数效应角度

Study on the macro-adjustment decision-making models of investment from the area multiplier effect

基于经济体内不同区域的社会边际消费倾向往往不相同的现实,运用区域两分法从区域乘数效应角度研究了投资的宏观调控决策体系,构建了相应的计量模型,进行了实际应用分析。结果表明:当投资对特定子区域的乘数效果成为关注的目标时,应当采取措施提高各子区域的边际消费倾向、特定子区域的投资内流比、非特定子区域的投资外流比、期初投资流入特定子区比例,以获得投资对特定子区域乘数效果的最佳化目标。当投资对整体区域的总体乘数效果成为关注的目标时,应当采取措施提高各子区域的边际消费倾向、边际消费倾向相对较高的子区域的投资内流比、边际消费倾向相对较低的子区域的投资外流比、期初投资流入边际消费倾向相对较高子区域的比例,以获得投资对整体区域总体乘数效果的最佳化目标。该研究具有良好的理论意义和现实价值。

We studied the macro-adjustment decision-making system of investment and developed a series of quality models correspondingly based on area multiplier effect by dividing the whole economic area into two branches because different branches of the whole economic area often have different marginal propensity to consume （MPC）, The results show that in determining the maximum multiplier effect of a certain branch area we should take a series of measures to improve the MPC of each branch, the investment in-flow rate of the certain branch area, the investment out-flow rate of the non-certain branch area and the initial in-flow rate of investment capital to the certain branch area, When considering the maximum multiplier effect of the whole economic area we should take a series of measures to improve the MPC of each branch area and the investment in-flow rate of the branch area with a higher MPC as well as the investment outflow rate of the branch with a lower MPC; also to be considered is the in-flow rate of investment capital to the branch area with a higher MPC. This paper is useful to both the theory and practice of investment macro-adjustment.