基于EVA的行业财务预警模型研究——以沪市IT上市公司为例

Study of EVA-Based Financial Early-warning Modal on Industry——With the sample of IT publicly owned companies on the Shanghai Stock Exchange

财务预警系统是当今企业规避风险的有效手段之一,但其先决条件是模型预测变量能准确、及时地揭示企业面临的财务危机。而传统财务指标由于行业差异和自身的局限性,难免影响预警作用的充分发挥。本文在选取EVA指标替代传统净利润指标的基础上,以沪市IT行业上市公司为样本,建立了基于EVA的IT行业财务预警模型,并据此进行实证分析,提出一些具体建议。

Financial early-warning system is one of the effective means with which enterprises avoid risks. However, the availability of the Financial Early-warning Model lies in that it can predict accurately the variables and reveal the dangers in time which are faced by enterprises. The model cannot work fully unavoidably for the differences of industry and limitations of traditional financial indexes. On the base of selecting Economic additional value （EVA） instead of retained profits and the samples of IT publicly owned companies on the ShangHai Stock Exchange, this paper develops an EVA-Based Financial Early-warning Modal on IT Industry. In additional, this paper puts forward some specific suggestions according to the actual application of the modal in our country.