甘蔗糖分预测模型的探讨

Discuss on the sucrose content forecasting model of sugarcane

在现有的两种甘蔗糖分预测模型基础上,利用按质论价产生的糖分数据,从单个榨糖企业的角度,对甘蔗糖分预测模型进行对比分析。通过对比二次曲线模型、分段Log istic曲线模型提出了单纯的Log istic模型,针对糖分积累峰值段低于模型预测值的情况,进一步推导出复合Log istic模型。复合Log istic模型能够模拟多种情况,较适合在实际生产中对甘蔗糖分进行预测。

In the foundation of two existing sucrose content forecasting model of sugarcane, with the sucrose data according to the price from quality, sucrose content forecasting models for enterprise were contrasted and analyzed. Comparing the conic model and the partitioned Logistic model, the logistic model was put forward. Aiming at the sucrose accumulative peak value lower than the forecast, the compound Logistic model was proposed. The compound Logistic model can simulate more situations and would be suitable for forecasting the sucrose content in sugarcane production.