基于Vague集理论和群决策的大坝病险综合评价方法

Security Evaluation for Reservoirs Based on Vague Set Theory and Group Decision-making

针对水库群坝安全评价及除险加固决策中每座水库存在多个不可公度的多属性问题,提出了基于Vague集理论的多属性群决策方法,并将其应用于武汉市水库群坝安全评价和除险加固决策问题中。通过计算每座水库的支持目标集、反对目标集和中立目标集,分别得出乐观决策者和悲观决策者对每座水库的Vague估计值；通过对各备选方案偏好值的集结,利用评分函数排定水库群坝达标改造次序,为武汉市各水库的除险加固决策提供了参考依据。

In order to solve the problem that there are multiple non-commensurability attributions in the traditional security evaluation of reservoirs, a vague set theory-based decision-making method is proposed for group decision-making involving multiple attributions, and it is successfully applied to the security evaluation of the reservoirs in Wuhan. The vague evaluations are obtained by computing the sets of supported, opposed and neutral objectives respectively. Then the order of dangerous reservoirs is determined by use of a grading function, providing a reference for the reinforcement of reservoirs in Wuhan.