基于短期资料的重庆风速极值渐进分布分析

Simulating of Asymptotic Distributions of Extreme Wind Speed in ChongQing Using Short-term Wind Speed Records

为克服统计样本容量(重庆地区1990-1999年间的风速资料)过少可能造成的统计误差,采用了月最大风速来拟合年最大风速的极值渐进分布.并通过3种极值分布函数(极值I型Gumbel、极值II型Frechet、极值III型reverseW eibull分布)及广义Parato分布(GPD)拟合结果的对比分析,得到短期风速资料下重庆年最大风速的极值渐进分布用极值III型(reverse W eibull)分布拟合较好,它给出了最佳的极值风速估计值.

In order to reduce the potential statistical error from the short sample of wind speed （ the data of wind speed between 1990 and 1999 in ChongQing district）, a method is introduced that simulates the asymptotic distributions of annul maximum wind speed according to the monthly maximum wind speed data. The simulated results of three extreme distributions （Gumbel, Frechet and reverse Weibull distributions） and Generalized Parato Distribution are contrasted and analysed. The reverse Weibuil distribution is evaluated as the best asymptotic one for short-term wind speed records in ChongQing. And the optimal value of annul maximum wind speed is estimated.