基于GIS的灾害疏散模拟及救援调度

GIS-based evacuation simulation and rescue dispatch in disaster

台风是我国东南沿海各省夏秋季中经常遭遇的自然灾害。在台风登陆之前,根据气象部门对台风发生过程及发展趋势的分析,预测防御范围,进行必要的应急疏散与救援调度,可以有效地减少人员伤亡和财产损失。研究了城市在风灾情况下进行疏散的模拟方法。将微观离散模型和宏观交通流模型相结合,采用元胞自动机原理和LW宏观交通流理论,建立了城市区域不同类型的疏散模型和应急服务规划模型,进行了人员和车辆的疏散模拟与分析,并在此基础上研制了基于G IS的灾害疏散模拟及救援调度系统,该系统可对城市防灾减灾规划和灾时应急预案的制定提供决策支持。

Typhoon is a kind of natural disasters which occurs frequently in inshore provinces of China in summer and autumn.Loss of life and properties may be reduced by forecasting the necessary defending area for the effective evacuation and rescue dispatch based on the analysis of the development process and trends of typhoon according to the prediction from the meteorology department. This paper studies the methods of evacuation simulation in urban area in the case a typhoon occurs. Microscopic discrete model and macroscopic traffic flow model are combined in these methods. The cellular automata and LW macroscopic traffic flow theories are employed in the creation of evacuation models and emergency service models for urban areas. A simulation system of evacuation and rescue dispatch in the disaster based on GIS has been developed for the support of decision-making of urban disasters prevention and mitigation and emergent response plans.