摘要
准确的备件消耗预测是合理有效地进行备件保障各项工作的基础。在综合分析考虑备件消耗影响因素的基础上,对部件的使用寿命过程进行了仿真,建立了备件消耗仿真预测模型,实例计算了未来一定时间段内的备件消耗量,并与解析法、移动算术平均模型、灰色区间预测模型、平稳过程模型和最小二乘法等方法的预测结果进行了分析比较。实验结果表明:使用仿真方法预测备件消耗量能更真实地反映备件消耗实际情况,并且能够为备件的需求供应提供更大限度的保障,提高备件保障率。
Exact spare wastage forecast is the base of effective spare supporting. Based on synthetically analyzing the main factors influencing spare wastage, the life cycle of parts is simulated. A simulation model of spares wastage is built, the wastage in a certain period of time in future is carried out by using example, and the result is compared with other five methods. The comparison shows that the spare wastage gained by this simulation method is closer to practice than other five in reality, it can offer more support for spare requirement, and increase spare support rate.
出处
《计算机仿真》
CSCD
2006年第12期306-309,共4页
Computer Simulation
关键词
备件
预测
仿真
模型
Spares
Forecast
Simulation
Model
