气候变化对乌裕尔河流域水文特性的影响

Impact of climate change on the hydrological variation in Wuyuer River Basin

对两参数月水量平衡模型进行改进,加入融雪径流模块,经验证,模型适用于乌裕尔河流域。建立了以最高气温、最低气温、降雨和风速为变量的蒸发皿蒸发估算模型,实现了气候模型结果与水文模型的连接。利用CS IRO-M k2和CCSR/N IES两个模型模拟结果加权平均,模拟未来气候变化,探讨了水文要素对气候变化的响应。结果表明:在未来四种温室气体排放情景(SRES A 1,A 2,B 1,B 2)下,最高气温、最低气温和降水呈显著的上升趋势,而风速则呈显著下降趋势;径流深和径流系数在四种情景下都有显著上升趋势,置信水平排序为A 2>A 1>B 1>B 2;敏感性分析和趋势检验结果证明了降水是影响径流的最主要因素。

The two-parameter monthly water balance modle has been improved by added to the snow melting runoff model. By testing and verifying, this modified model can be suitable to the Wuyuer River Basin. The pan evaparation estimating model has been established by the variations of maximal temperature, minimal temperature, preciptation and wind speed to realize the connection of climatic model with the hydrologic model. Using the wight average value of the two models as CSIRO-MK2 and CCSR/NIES, this paper has simulated the climate change in future and discussed the response of hydrologic elements to the climate change. The results have shown that under the four climatic situations as SRES A1, A2, B1 and B2, the precipitation, maximal and minimal temperature have shown significantly increasing trend, the wind has shown the siginificantly decreasing trend. Under the four condition, the runoff depth and runoff coefficient have shown significantly increasing trend. The sequence of the confidence level was A2〉A1〉B1〉B2. However, the precipitation was the most important factor which affected the runoff proved by the sensible analysis and trend in specting.