灰色预测在船舶避碰时机决策中的应用

Application of Grey Forecasting in the Decision of Ship′s Collision Avoidance Time

针对船舶避碰决策系统中的船舶运动趋势和避碰时机,应用灰色系统理论预测模型,实时预测各目标船相对于本船在下一时刻的运动参数,预估目标船相对于本船的最近会遇距离DCPA和最近会遇时间TCPA;同时,对于灰色预测模型预测误差大的问题,提出了先缓冲后预测的处理思想,并对缓冲算子作了改进。仿真结果表明,该方法能有效提高船舶海上航行的灵活性和安全可靠性,达到提前预警和帮助驾驶员提前做好避碰准备与应急措施等目的。

For the trend of ship motion and the time of collision avoidance in the collision avoidance decisionmaking, using grey forecasting model the motion parameter forecasting of the target ships in the next moment relating to the ship under discussion is momentarily carried out as well as the distance of the closest point of approach （in short DCPA） and the time to the closest point of approach （in short TCPA） of the target ships ralating to the ship under discussion are forecasted in this paper. At the same time, in view of forecasting error of the grey forecasting model the method that is first to buffer and then to forecast is put forward, and the buffer operator is improved. Simulation result indicates that the method presented by authors can effectively improve the flexibility, reliability and the safety of the ship sailing at sea, and achieve the aim such as alarm ahead, helping the steermen to prepare for avoiding collision ahead, taking emergency measure and so on.