摘要
确定性的可靠性分析方法在描述模糊情形下的逻辑门与事件时表现出了局限性.为能在模糊情形下进行可靠性分析,利用贝叶斯网络对不确定性问题具有良好描述能力和推理能力的特点,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的可靠性分析方法.该方法在采用贝叶斯网络进行系统可靠性建模基础上,提出了一个重要的概念:置信割集;并给出了计算强割集的算法.这种基于贝叶斯网络的可靠性分析方法能较好地刻画系统中存在的模糊性,丰富了割集理论,使可靠性分析更加接近实际.最后,举例说明了算法的有效性.
The deterministic method of reliability analysis is difficult to descript the logic gates and events under fuzzy environments. This paper gives a method of reliability analysis based on Bayesian network that is capable of excellent representations and reasoning for fuzzy problem. Meanwhile a key conception named cut set with confidence is proposed and the algorithm for strong cut set is given. The method for reliability analysis based on Bayesian Network can describe the system fuzziness clearly and shows a good capability in modeling. At last, the validity of the algorithm is illustrated by an example.
出处
《系统工程学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第6期668-672,共5页
Journal of Systems Engineering
基金
国家部委预研基金资助项目(2005AA845023)
关键词
可靠性分析
故障树
贝叶斯网络
置信割集
强割集
reliability analysis
fault tree
Bayesian network
cut set with confidence
strong cut set
