上市公司财务危机实证研究

Empirical Research of Financial Crisis of Listed Companies

财务危机数量的增多及投资风险急剧增大,使得建立一套科学的上市公司财务风险评价体系显得尤为必要。运用剖面分析和Logistic回归模型对ST公司及配对样本建立模型。剖面分析表明资产收益率判定效果最佳,Logistic回归模型对样本t-1年的判别率达到81．6％。

As more and more companies are facing financial crisis and risks of investment are increasing rapidly,it is necessary to set up a series of scientific financial evaluating system for listed companies. This paper establishes a model of the ST companies and matched samples based on profile analysis and logistic regression model. Profile analysis shows that asset income rate is an optimal method. The distinguishing rate of logistic regression model of t-1 years＇ sample can reach 81.6%.