灰色灾变预测方法在城市轨道交通安全中的应用

Calamities grey prediction applied to the safety of urban transit system

实现城市轨道交通的智能化和高可靠度,需要有高可靠性硬件的支持,设备的日常维护十分重要。文中列出了可能影响轨道交通安全的主要因素,经过分析得出结论,其中硬件设备的偶然性失效处于首位,检测维修失误也是不可忽视的一环。运用灰色灾变预测方法对硬件故障率异常的时分布进行了预测,算例表明,预测精度很高,可为合理高效安排检修提供依据。

To realiz the intelligent and high reliable urban transit system, it requires the relative hardware with high reliability and daily necessary maintenance. Most possible factors that influence the safety of urban transit system are listed and analyzed. It is concluded that the accidental and wearing failure of equipment is the very important factor and examination fault should be recognized. The method of calamities grey prediction is proposed to forecast the unexpected time distribution of hardware malfunction rate, and the result is proved accurately. h will provide support for the reasonable and effective maintenance.