海南农垦经济的灰色关联分析

The Gray Incidence analysis of Hainan Farm Economy

将灰色系统理论中灰色关联度分析的方法,应用于海南农垦经济分析。将海南农垦经济按时序划分为1980年代、1990年代及2000年以来三个时期,把垦区的国民生产总值和农业总产值分别作为指标主行为序列,相应的以第一产业、第二产业、第三产业及种植业、林业、牧业、渔业作为它们的相关行为序列,分别建立指标体系,对垦区的经济结构进行灰色关联分析,探索垦区产业结构和农业内部结构的变化规律。分析结果显示,过去20年中,垦区在产业结构方面,第一产业发展对垦区国民经济的影响比较稳定,而2000年以后,第三产业发展成为垦区经济中的新亮点;农业生产方面,林业一直占主导地位,是垦区农业发展的关键,但2000年以后,种植业对农业总产值的影响变得突出。最后,就调整和优化垦区经济结构、产业结构提出对策与措施。

This paper applies the gray incidence analytic method of gray system theory to the analysis of Hainan economy. Hainan farm economy is chronologically divided into three periods： 1980s, 1990s and 2000 thereafter, GDP and Total Agriculture output value are taken as the main behavior sequences, and the primary industry, second industry, tertiary industry, planting, frosty, animal husbandry and fishery are taken as their related behavior sequences. Then, an index system is set up to analyze farm economic structure in gray incidence analytic method so as to find out the changing rule of farm industry structure and agriculture internal structure. The result shows that in the last two decades, as far as the industry structure is concerned, the primary industry has been exerting a steady influence on the farm economy, while the tertiary industry development has become a significant part in the farm economy since 2000; in terms of agriculture production, forestry has always been the key factor of Hainan farm agriculture development, always occupying a dominant position, but since 2000, planting has been exerting an outstanding influence on the Total Agriculture output value. The paper finally puts forward some suggestions for adjusting and optimizing the farm economy structure and industry structure.