INTERNET TRAFFIC DATA FLOW FORECAST BY RBF NEURAL NETWORK BASED ON PHASE SPACE RECONSTRUCTION

基于相空间重构的网络流量RBF神经网络预测(英文)

Characteristics of the Internet traffic data flow are studied based on the chaos theory. A phase space that is isometric with the network dynamic system is reconstructed by using the single variable time series of a network flow. Some parameters, such as the correlative dimension and the Lyapunov exponent are calculated, and the chaos characteristic is proved to exist in Internet traffic data flows. A neural network model is construct- ed based on radial basis function （RBF） to forecast actual Internet traffic data flow. Simulation results show that, compared with other forecasts of the forward-feedback neural network, the forecast of the RBF neural network based on the chaos theory has faster learning capacity and higher forecasting accuracy.

应用混沌理论,分析了网络流量,用单变量的网络流量时间序列重构与网络动力系统等距同构的相空间,进而计算了实际网络的关维数和Lyapunov指数,并证实了网络流量存在混沌特性;据此建立了基于径向基函数(RBF)神经网络的模型,并对实际网络数据流进行了预测。仿真结果表明,相对于其他前馈神经网络预测,基于混沌理论的RBF神经网络预测方法学习速度快,预测精度高。