森林火险气象指数及其构建方法回顾

Review of Forest Fire Danger Weather Indexes and Their Calculation Methods

森林火灾是威胁地球生态的主要灾害之一。为实现对林区起火可能性大小、火灾强度、火灾蔓延速度以及火灾扑救难易程度进行评估和预测,国内外专家学者利用森林火灾与气象条件之间的关系研制了诸多森林火险气象指数的构建方法。作者对近几十年来国内外森林火险气象指数的研究工作进行回顾和总结,得出广泛应用的火险指数可以归纳为指数查对法、综合指标法和统计回归法等3种类型,究其原理和使用效果,各有优缺点。在实际使用过程中,需要结合我国的气候和环境特点进行适用性修正和完善。

Forest fire is a kind of disaster, which often damages the ecosystem on the earth. Based on the relationship between forest fire and weather conditions, many kinds of forest fire danger weather indexes are developed to estimate and predict the possibility of ignition, fire intensity and spread, as well as the difficulty of wildfires control. Through reviewing and summarizing various study results, it can be included that the methods for calculating forest fire danger weather index conclude mainly three kinds, i.e. index verification check method, synthesis index method, and statistic regression metho＆ In light of the theory and the applied effect, any method has its own strong point and defect comparing with others, so when it were used in China, the real calculation method should be modified and improved according to local climatic and environmental characteristics everywhere.