摘要
采用自助法(Bootstrap method)对炔螨特(propargite)防治桑树朱砂叶螨(Tetranychus cinnabarinus)的效果进行了统计推断。将4个试验点获得的田间防治效果数据进行平方根反正弦转换后,采用1000次自助法再抽样并作统计分析。结果表明,73%炔螨特乳油243.33mg/L有效质量浓度处理的第1、3、7天,田间防治效果的点估计分别为78.37%、86.03%和86.36%,置信区间估计依次为78.21%~78.52%、85.83%~86.24%和86.16%~86.55%;365.00mg/L处理的第1、3、7天,田间防治效果的点估计分别为88.14%、91.90%和91.23%,置信区间估计依次为88.01%~88.27%、91.78%~92.02%和91.09%~91.38%;486.67mg/L处理第1、3、7天,田间防治效果的点估计分别为92.82%、95.70%和95.11%,相应的置信区间估计依次为92.72%~92.93%、95.64%~95.76%和95.01%~95.20%。以上述的点估计为测试点,对各浓度处理后的不同天数的防治效果进行游程检测(Monte carlo Sig方法),随机性显著(p>0.05)。通过Tamhane方法、Dunnett T3方法和Games-Howell方法对上述各处理的不同天数后的防治效果进行统计检测表明:炔螨特对桑园中朱砂叶螨的防治效果在防治后第3天达到高峰(p>0.05),至第7天,243.33mg/L处理区的防治效果持平(p<0.0000);而365.00和486.67mg/L处理区的防治效果呈下降趋势(p>0.05)。以上统计推断结果显示:73%炔螨特乳油对桑树朱砂叶螨具有较好的田间防治效果,推荐使用的有效质量浓度为243.33mg/L。
Statistical inference of controlling effects of propargite on carmine spider mite (Tetranychus cinnabarinus) in mulberry (Morus L.) garden was performed by using bootstrapping method. Data from 4 areas in China were bootstrapped (1 000), the results showed that the point estimations of the controlling effects of concentration of 243.33 mg/L were 78.37%, 86.03% and 86.36% in first, third and seventh day, respectively, confidence interval (CI) estimations were 78.21%~78.52%, 85.83%~86.24% and 86.16%~86.55% respectively, that the point estimations of different day for 365.00 mg/L were 88.14%, 91.23% and 91.90%, respectively, CIs were 88.01%~88.27%, 91.78%~92.02% and 91.09%~91.38%, respectively, and that the point estimations for 486.67 mg/L were 92.82%, 95.70% and 95.11%, respectively, CIs were 92.72%~92.93%, 95.64%~95.76% and 95.01%~95.20%, respectively. Using run-tests of the controlling effects on days of treatments by Monte Carlo Sig with cut values corresponding point estimations, the results suggested that data in groups were stochastic (p 〉 0.05). Tests of Tamhane, Dunnett and Games-Howellafter method showed that controlling effects reached maximum in third day for all treatments (p 〉 0.05), then treatment effects presented descending(p 〉 0.05) except that it was invariable for 243.33 mg/L (p 〈 0.000 0). The statistical inference revealed that the controlling effect of propargite on the red mite in mulberry garden in China is acceptable under sprayed concentration of 243.33 mg/L.
出处
《蚕业科学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第4期453-458,共6页
ACTA SERICOLOGICA SINICA
基金
国家"十五"重点科技攻关专题内容(编号2001 BA-502 B01)。
关键词
桑园杀螨剂
炔螨特
朱砂叶螨
防治效果
统计推断
Acaricide in mulberry
Propargite
Tetranychus cinnabarinus
Controlling effects
Statistical inference