用自助法统计推断炔螨特对桑树朱砂叶螨的防治效果

Statistical Inference of Controlling Effects of Propargite on Carmine Spider Mite (Tetranychus cinnabarinus) in Mulberry (Morus L.) Garden by Bootstrap Method

采用自助法(Bootstrap method)对炔螨特(propargite)防治桑树朱砂叶螨(Tetranychus cinnabarinus)的效果进行了统计推断。将4个试验点获得的田间防治效果数据进行平方根反正弦转换后,采用1000次自助法再抽样并作统计分析。结果表明,73%炔螨特乳油243．33mg/L有效质量浓度处理的第1、3、7天,田间防治效果的点估计分别为78．37%、86．03%和86．36%,置信区间估计依次为78．21%～78．52%、85．83%～86．24%和86．16%～86．55%；365．00mg/L处理的第1、3、7天,田间防治效果的点估计分别为88．14%、91．90%和91．23%,置信区间估计依次为88．01%～88．27%、91．78%～92．02%和91．09%～91．38%；486．67mg/L处理第1、3、7天,田间防治效果的点估计分别为92．82%、95．70%和95．11%,相应的置信区间估计依次为92．72%～92．93%、95．64%～95．76%和95．01%～95．20%。以上述的点估计为测试点,对各浓度处理后的不同天数的防治效果进行游程检测(Monte carlo Sig方法),随机性显著(p＞0．05)。通过Tamhane方法、Dunnett T3方法和Games-Howell方法对上述各处理的不同天数后的防治效果进行统计检测表明：炔螨特对桑园中朱砂叶螨的防治效果在防治后第3天达到高峰(p＞0．05),至第7天,243．33mg/L处理区的防治效果持平(p＜0．0000)；而365．00和486．67mg/L处理区的防治效果呈下降趋势(p＞0．05)。以上统计推断结果显示：73%炔螨特乳油对桑树朱砂叶螨具有较好的田间防治效果,推荐使用的有效质量浓度为243．33mg/L。

Statistical inference of controlling effects of propargite on carmine spider mite （Tetranychus cinnabarinus） in mulberry （Morus L.） garden was performed by using bootstrapping method. Data from 4 areas in China were bootstrapped （1 000）, the results showed that the point estimations of the controlling effects of concentration of 243.33 mg/L were 78.37%, 86.03% and 86.36% in first, third and seventh day, respectively, confidence interval （CI） estimations were 78.21%～78.52%, 85.83%～86.24% and 86.16%～86.55% respectively, that the point estimations of different day for 365.00 mg/L were 88.14%, 91.23% and 91.90%, respectively, CIs were 88.01%～88.27%, 91.78%～92.02% and 91.09%～91.38%, respectively, and that the point estimations for 486.67 mg/L were 92.82%, 95.70% and 95.11%, respectively, CIs were 92.72%～92.93%, 95.64%～95.76% and 95.01%～95.20%, respectively. Using run-tests of the controlling effects on days of treatments by Monte Carlo Sig with cut values corresponding point estimations, the results suggested that data in groups were stochastic （p 〉 0.05）. Tests of Tamhane, Dunnett and Games-Howellafter method showed that controlling effects reached maximum in third day for all treatments （p 〉 0.05）, then treatment effects presented descending（p 〉 0.05） except that it was invariable for 243.33 mg/L （p 〈 0.000 0）. The statistical inference revealed that the controlling effect of propargite on the red mite in mulberry garden in China is acceptable under sprayed concentration of 243.33 mg/L.