加入WTO以后影响中国生丝出口因素的实证研究

Empirical Studies on the Influencing Elements of Raw Silk Export of China After Entering WTO

为了深入理解入世以来中国生丝出口贸易的现状并对出口贸易总额波动进行合理的解释,分析了中国加入WTO以后影响生丝出口的诸多因素。通过Gmnger因果关系检验发现,对中国生丝出口贸易总额起到决定性影响的是国际市场规模和国内生丝的产量两个因素：中国生丝的出口存在国际市场依赖的现象,且生丝出口并不注重整体质量。进一步在Granger因果关系检验的基础上,通过各个变量间的相关性分析,发现中国生丝的出口贸易总额受到价格和质量的作用并不明显,生丝的产量和国际市场份额则起到主导作用。鉴于此,分别从国际市场依赖性强和品质价格依赖性弱的角度提出了一些建议。

In order to deeply understand the reality of the raw silk export of China and explain the fluctuation of the export, the paper analyzes the influencing elements of raw silk export after entering WTO. The Granger Cause Tests showed that the two major influencing elements are the size of the international market and the output of raw silk in China, that is, the raw silk export of China depends on the situation of the international market, and the quality of the goods was not paid enough attention. And through the analysis of regression based on the Granger Cause Tests, the raw silk export of China did not be determined by the price and the quality of the goods, the output of the raw silk and the share of the international market had the main effect. In view of this, this paper gives some suggestions in the respect of strong international market dependence and weak quality and price dependence.