近500年来安徽杭埠河流域旱涝灾害发生规律及其成因分析

CHARACTERISTICS AND FORMATION MECHANISM OF DROUGHTS & FLOODS IN THE HANGBU RIVER BASIN (ANHUI PROVINCE) DURING RECENT 500 YEARS

通过对杭埠河流域近500年的旱涝灾害、人口变化等史志资料的搜集整理,分别统计出旱灾和涝灾在不同冷暖气候期和人口变化阶段的发生频率。结果显示本区气候总体冷期易旱、暖期易涝,显示季风气候区的特征。但19世纪中后期表现为冷湿特点,反映了该时期全球气候转冷和东亚夏季风的减弱。另外20世纪以来随着人口的快速增加,旱涝灾害发生频率也在显著提高,反映出急剧增强的人类活动导致巢湖调蓄能力逐渐减弱。

By collecting and arranging the recent 500-year historical documents and local annals of Shucheng region, the authors calculated the frequency of droughts ＆ floods in different climate periods and at population-changing stages. It is revealed that droughts often occur in the cold periods while floods in the warm, indicating the monsoon climate change. However, cold-moist climate dominated in the mid-late 19th century, implying the global climate turning cold and the East Asian summer monsoon weakening in that period. In addition, with dramatic increase of population, the frequency of droughts ＆ floods went up significantly during the recent century. As a reflection, the intensified human activities have weakened the storage capacity of the Chaohu Lake considerably.