黄土高原耕地变化趋势及驱动力研究——以甘肃陇东地区为例

Studies on Change and Driving Forces of the Cultivated Land use in Loess Pleteau——A Case of Longdong Region,Gansu

利用GIS技术并结合相关统计资料,对黄土高原典型区近50年来的耕地数量变化的基本特征、变化过程、耕地流向进行了分析。并应用相关分析法和主成分分析法对近17年耕地变化的驱动因子进行了定量分析。结果表明:1949-2002年陇东地区耕地总量经历了缓慢增加-缓慢减少—急剧减少—缓慢减少的波动变化过程;耕地的主要流向是非农建设用地、林草地和果园等;耕地的增加主要是草地、林地和未利用地开垦而成;干旱、降水不均及水土流失等是耕地变化的自然驱动力。经济增长、人口增长、城市化水平及农业科技进步等是耕地变化的社会经济驱动力。耕地变化过程与国家宏观政策背景相关联。

The change of cultivated land is core of regional land utilization change. It＇s change and change trend reflects basic state of society economy. The case is chosen in Longdong region which is one of typical mound county in Loess Plateau.. The changes characters, process and flow of the cultivated land in the representative region of Loess Plateau in the recent 50 years were analysis based on the GIS technology and statistical data. Mean while, using correlation analysis, principal component analysis methods the driven factors of the farmland changes in Longdong region in recent 17 years were also studied. The results indicated： （1） the changes of the total farmland in the Longdong region could be described as increased slowly at the first and decreased sharply and slowly in the middle and last from 1949 to 2002, and the per person farmland area reduced largely from 0. 91 hm2 at 1955 to 0.18 hm2 at 2002; （2） The main flow of the farmland is construction land , forest and grassland and others, reclamation forest and grassland to farmland compensated the reduction of the farmland area in some extent; （3） Drought, precipitation dynamics and soil and water losses were the main natural driven factors of the farmland changes, the increasing of economics and population, city level and the advancement of science and technology were the main social economics driven factors of the farmland changes. The changes of farmland were relation to the state macro- policy, the farmland reduction was consistent with increased of social economics in temporal scale and accord with region economics develop difference in spatial scale.