我国上市公司股利政策信息内涵实证研究

Research on the Information Content of Dividend Policy of China's Listed Corporations

股利信号传递理论是解释股利政策的主流理论之一,该理论认为股利能有效传递公司发展前景的信息。基于信号传递理论,以及我国上市公司股利政策与未来盈利能力的关系,我国上市公司股利政策信息内涵包括:分配股利公司的未来收益要好于未分配股利公司;公司股利增加,其未来盈利水平也上升,反之亦然;公司现金股利与其未来盈利能力成正相关性。我国上市公司股利政策具有信号传递效应,能够传递未来盈利方面的信息。

Signaling theory is one of the main theories of the nature of dividend policy, which holds that dividend can signal corporationt future earning level to investors effectively. Based on signaling theory, the paper explores the information that dividend policy conveys by studying the relationship between dividend policy and future earning level of Chinag listed corporations. The empirical results indicate that the future of company which distributes dividend is better than company that doesnt. The company which increases its dividend has more future income than the one which reduces its dividend, and there is a correlative correlation between its cash dividend and its future earning level. There is signaling hypothesis in China＇s capital market, and dividend policy can convey information of corporations＇future performance.