基于时空分析的城市边缘区耕地演变机理研究——以武汉市黄陂区为例

Study on change of the cultivated land and driving forces in Urban Fringe Area based on spatio-temporal analysis——A case of Huangpi area in Wuhan

城市边缘区是土地利用最复杂和最活跃的区域,其耕地演变一直是国内外学者关注的焦点.在地理信息系统技术的支持下,利用耕地面积变化的时间序列模型、耕地动态度模型、耕地重心变化模型等,对城市边缘区耕地的时空演变特征进行定量研究,并应用主成分分析法,选取18个因素对其驱动因子进行相关分析.结果表明,地处城市边缘区的黄陂区耕地面积的变化主要是受社会经济的快速发展、人口增长、农业结构调整及耕地比较效益的影响.

Urban Fringe is the most active and complicated zone of Land Use. Its cultivated land evolvement is the focus of some studies. The data obtaining from statistical sources is used to analyzed the spatio--temporal change of cultivated land by using culti- vated land dynamic degree and cultivated land center of gravity model. Then driving forces are found by principal component analysis. The result indicates that the growth of population and economic development are dominical factors for change of Huangpi cultivated land.