长江上游主要河流径流丰枯空间变化特性初步研究

Analysis of Regularity of Runoff Distribution of Main Rivers in Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River

集对分析是处理不确定性问题的一种新理念,认为在一个系统中确定性与不确定性相互联系、影响、制约并在一定条件下相互转化,用联系度来描述系统的各种不确定性,由此实现对系统的评价和决策。河川径流存在大量的不确定性,应用有序聚类方法建立径流丰枯状态的分级标准,然后运用集对的联系度来描述各水系间丰枯状态的同异反程度。以长江上游主要河流52 a的径流资料为基础进行了具体应用,结果表明:长江上游主要河流径流总体具有丰枯同步的特点。

Set pair analysis (SPA) is a new idea for handling uncertain problem. It is considered that with in a certain system , the uncertainty and certainty is mutually connected , influenced and restricted and can transform mutually under certain conditions. Contact coefficient is used to describe various uncertainty of the system, thus to realize the policy decision and evaluation for the system. First, sequential cluster method is applied to set up the classification standard of the low and high runoff conditions based on the fact that there are much uncertainty characteristics; then identical, discrepancy and contrary between water systems was described by contact coefficient; finally, 52-year runoff data obtained in upper reaches of the Yangtze River are studied by this method. As a result, the main rivers in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River present special characteristics of the same frequency of low and high runoff.