中国产业发展对就业增长影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Relation between Industrial Development and Employment Growth in China

使用中国各产业就业人数和实际GDP数据,并结合国际比较,通过计算实际GDP就业弹性指标,实证分析了中国三次产业及其内部16个行业发展对就业增长的影响。结论是,今后我国第三产业是吸纳劳动力的主要产业,而第三产业中的新兴服务业成为吸纳就业的主力。如果没有较大的转制、提质、创新,第三产业进一步扩大就业的能力会有所下降。

With cross-reference to international experience, the paper gives an empirical analysis of the relationship between the industrial development and employment growth, using the statistics of employment and the real GDP. It argues that the tertiary industry will be the main employment-absorbing sector, with the rising service industry as the backbone forces. However, it would be difficult for the tertiary industry to further enhance its employment potentials ff no major institutional reforms, upgrading or innovations are accomplished within the sector.