中国的对外直接投资对其国际收支影响的实证研究

An Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Chinese Direct Investment Abroad on China's Balance of Payment

本文首先阐述了对外直接投资对国际收支影响的基本理论。然后,对中国对外直接投资对中国国际收支影响进行了理论分析。在此基础之上,采集1983年-2004年数据,对中国对外直接投资对中国国际收支影响进行了实证分析。实证分析显示,中国的对外直接投资,由于规模较小等方面原因,对国际收支中经常项目影响不大,对金融账户影响不稳定,与国际收支余额不存在因果关系。

Firstly, this paper introduced the basic theories of the effect of Direct Investment Abroad （short for DIA） on the Balance of Payment. Then, according to the current practice problems in China, theoretically, it analyzed the effect of Chinese DIA to China＇s Balance of Payment. Based on the analysis, the paper collected the data from 1983 to 2004, and did an empirical analysis on the effect of Chinese DIA on China＇s Balance of Payment. And then it came to the conclusion as follows： due to the small scale of Chinese DIA and so on, the Chinese DIA has little effect on the current account, has unstable effect on the financial account and there is no causality relationship between Chinese DIA and the balance of payments.