我国资本外逃与经济开放度的实证研究:1982-2004年

An Empirical Study on Capital Flight and Economic Openness in China

本文以国际收支平衡表中的经常账户和资本与金融账户为基础,分别从实体经济层面的贸易开放度和金融层面的投资开放度来界定我国的经济开放度指标,运用两变量VAR系统分析方法对1982-2004年我国资本外逃规模与经济开放度各指标之间的关系进行实证研究,结果表明二者之间具有显著的正向协整关系,相对投资开放度而言,贸易开放度对资本外逃规模有较大的影响。基于此结论,本文提出了相应的政策建议。

Based on the current account and financial account of the balance of payments statement, this paper respectively defines the economic openness from trade openness of economic angle and investment openness from financial angle. It employs two variable VAR system approaches, analyzes the relationship between capital flight and economic openness from 1982 to 2004 in China. The result indicates remarkable positive cointegration between them and greater effect of trade openness on capital flight than investment openness. Finally, the paper analyzes the above results conclusively.