基于灰色系统理论对舰船方位变化规律的分析

Research on grey model prediction and relevancy analysis for military vessels bearing varying rules

舰船方位序列是一种带有灰色信息的时间序列，灰色系统理论是处理灰色信息的有力武器。本文将灰色系统理论灵活应用到舰船目标纯方位定位和要素解算领域，解决了传统的困扰解算目标运动要素的一些难点；提出了一些新的概念和方法，如目标方位序列集的概念和采用以某一方位为间隔的各方位区间的方位值数量作为灰色聚类中的灰聚类因子的方法，既可以有效区分不同方位序列集的分类，还能据此反演得到目标速度、航向以及位置信息的大概范围。

Military vessel bearing series is a kind of time series which contain grey information. Grey Model Theory is a strong weapon which is capable of dealing with grey information. On the base of analyzing and expatiating the Grey Model Theory, it was applied in the area of military vessel bearing-only location and movement analyzing （CLMA） to solve the traditional difficulties in CLMA area. Some new concepts and methods, such as contact bearing series set and the bearing numbers exist in a bearing span being used as the grey cluster element, have been brought forward to not only separate a specific bearing series from others, but also induce the target＇s range of velocity, course and location from the process.