旅游需求预测方法的比较分析

Comparing Analysis about Tourism Demand Forecasting Methods

需求预测是旅游计划管理的一项重要工作。旅游需求预测对于旅游地规划和建设旅游基础设施,组织产品和提供旅游者服务是一个基础性的前期工作。然而,旅游产品的易逝性和不可贮存之特征,对旅游需求预测提出了更高的要求。本文试图通过总结和评价自20世纪中期以来旅游需求预测的方法,确立一个适合于中国旅游发展的新思路。

Demand forecasting is a very important work for tourism plan and management. Tourism demand forecasting is a basic prophase work to tourism destination programmed, tourism infrastructure built, products organized and services offered for tourists. However, it needs more precise forecasting results for tourism demand than else because tourism products are perishable and impossible to be stockpiled. This paper tries to sum up and evaluate some forecasting methods that have been developed since the mid of 20th century and establishes a new idea that will be fit for Chinese tourism development.