近半个世纪来和田地区气温变化分析

Analysis on the Temperature Variety of Hotan Area During the Second Half of Last Century

本文采用和田地区1954—2003年气温实测资料,使用滑动平均法计算气温年际及季节变化趋势;计算统计特征值来分析气温年内变化特征。得出如下结论:和田地区年气温有增加的趋势;夏季、秋季、冬季气温也有增加的趋势且冬季气温值增幅较大;标准差及变差系数都是冬季变化较为剧烈;偏度系数在夏季及秋季为正值;峰度系数值在冬季较大。

The observed data of temperature during 1954 ～ 2003 in Hotan area were used, the annual and seasonal change trends are analyzed by moving -average method; the statistical characteristics were calculated to analyze the variation feature of temperature within a year. The resuts showed that the annual average temperature had an increasing trend; summer, autumn and winter average temperature also had an increasing trend and the amplitude in winter was bigger; the change of standard deviation and coefficient of variation were acute during winter; the coefficients of skewness were positive value during summer and autumn; the kurtosis coefficients were bigger during winter.