新疆北部的降水量线性变化趋势特征分析

Analysis on the Linear Tendency of Precipitation in North Xinjiang

应用新疆北疆地区以及天山山区26个气象站1961-2005年的月降水量资料,分析了新疆北部地区、天山山区、北疆沿天山经济带、北疆平原、北疆北部流域、北疆西部流域6个区域的年、暖季(5-10月)、冷季(11-4月)以及各月的降水量线性趋势特征。结果显示:6个区域及26个气象站的年降水量45a年来均呈线性增加趋势;暖季降水量6个区域均呈线性增加趋势,北疆区、天山山区最显著;冷季降水量6个区域全部呈明显的线性增加趋势;月降水线性趋势变化较显著的月份为1、2、7、11、12月,其它各月没有通过0.10显著性水平检验,12个月中增湿趋势站数明显占优势的月份可占80%左右,3、9月呈下降趋势的站数较多。增湿结果已给新疆带来风吹雪、雪崩、畜牧业雪灾、洪水、融雪性洪水、泥石流、滑坡等灾害。

By using the monthly precipitation data at 26 meteorological stations in North Xinjiang as well as the mountainous area of the Tianshan Mountains from 1961 to 2005, the linear tendency characteristics of precipitation of warm season （from May to October） and cold season （from November to April）, annually and monthly are analyzed in the north area of Xinjiang, mountainous area of the Tianshan Mountains, economical belt of the northern Xinjiang along Tianshan Mountains, plain area of North Xinjiang, northern drainage area of North Xinjiang, western drainage area of North Xinjiang. The result shows that, the annual precipitation of in 70 meteorological stations of six regions shows a linear tendency to rise during 45 a. the precipitation of 6 regions appear to be increase, especially in North Xinjiang and mountainous area of the Tianshan Mountains. according to the linear regression variation during warm period, the precipitation of 6 regions appear to be increase, especially in North Xinjiang and mountainous area of the Tianshan Mountains; From the linear regression variation during cold period, all of six regions has the clear increase trend of precipitation. In Jan, Feb, July, Nov and Dec, the monthly precipitation linear tendency change seems to be optimistic. Other each month has not passed 0.10 remarkable levels. The increase tendency month may account for about 80% during 12 monthes. The clear reduced tendency month is Mar and September. The humidification result has brought the wind snow drift, the avalanche, the animal husbandry snow disaster, the flood, the thaw flood, the mudslide, the landslide, the geological disaster to Xiniiang.