农户对禁牧政策的行为响应及其影响因素研究——以新疆策勒县为例

Rural Households' Behavior Responses to Grazing Prohibition Policy:A Case Study in Qira,China

以新疆策勒县为例,对当地农牧民在封育禁牧影响下的经济行为响应及其影响因素利用对数线性模型进行定量分析,以研究不同背景条件的农牧民在进行行为选择时的规律性因素。研究表明,农户所属区域及其拥有的资本水平是农户对禁牧行为响应的显著影响因素;农户所属区域及当地的技术服务培训等政策配套水平是农户对禁牧态度的显著影响因素;农牧民畜牧生产观念的转变和草场承包责任制的落实是实施禁牧政策的先决条件。建议政府针对区域及农户的资本差异进行分类补偿;当地政府可整合利用各相关部门的项目资源和资金进行禁牧的政策前期和推广工作。

This paper is intended to study influencing factors for rural households＇ behavior responses to Grazing Prohibition policy. Rural households＇background and their knowledge, attitude and behavior responses to Grazing Prohibition were investigated through questionnaire survey in Qira, China. Influencing factors for attitude and behavior responses from the households were analyzed using Loglinear Model. The results indicated that households＇ regional background and local technical service as well as training condition were significant influencing factors for households＇attitude toward Grazing Prohibition, while influencing factors for households＇behavior were their regional background and availability of capital such as per capita income, cropland area or grassland area. Grazing was found a rooted manner for local stock breeding, especially in the foothill region. Meaningful association was found between attitude and households＇ choice on ‘shed raising’. Policy suggestions were made as follows： Rural households＇ traditional concept of stock breeding should be changed and local grassland contract responsibility system fulfilled as the necessity for the implementation of Grazing Prohibition. Local government should integrate projects and project fund from relevant local departments such as agriculture, forestry and water resource to do the initiative work. Robust compensation mechanisms should be set up in terms of different regional, income or capital conditions of rural households, to compensate their losses.