南极冰盖数值模拟研究进展与展望

PROGRESS AND PROSPECT IN NUMERICAL MODELLING OF THE ANTARCTIC ICE-SHEET

数值模拟南极冰盖是提升人们认识南极冰盖演化行为的重要手段。通过数值模拟研究可以揭示某些观测数据包含的冰盖物理机理以及在缺乏观测数据的情形下预测冰盖的演化行为。本文在综述南极冰盖数值研究国际进展的基础上,分析了南极冰盖数值模拟方面几个主要模型的特点,特别针对南极冰盖的三维数值模拟展开讨论,分析并探讨了冰盖数值模拟可能会遇到的潜在不稳定源以及在拓展模型研究范围时会遇到的障碍。对目前三维冰盖数值模拟存在的几个问题进行了讨论,并对未来发展进行了展望。

The numerical modelling of the Antarctic ice sheet is an important way to improve our understanding of the behavior of the ice sheet. By this way, we can find out some physical mechanism implied in the data of the observations, and extrapolate the ice-sheet evolution of some areas where no observations are available. In this paper, we review the history of the numerical ice-sheet model in Antarctica, and discuss the models used to research the Antarctic ice sheet, especially the 3-D models of the whole Antarctic ice-sheet. In detail, some results of the numerical simulation about Antarctic ice sheet are given. The potential thermomechanical source of instability and the handicaps in model studies are identified and discussed. In conclusion, there is much room for improvement of numerical models of the Antarctic ice sheet.