中国特大城市水资源消费及其与经济和气候的关系——以北京、上海和广州为例

Change of water consumption and its relationships to economy and climate:Cases from Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou

选取了北京、上海、广州三个不同地理纬度、经济较为发达的代表性城市作为研究对象,应用多项式模型把气候耗水量从水资源消费总量中分离出来,用统计分析的方法探讨三个城市水资源消费变化及其与经济和气候的关系。研究表明:城市万元GDP用水量与经济水平有明显的对数相关关系,一般都随经济水平的提高而不断下降,三个城市中,上海的水资源利用率最高,广州居中,北京最低。温度是影响城市气候耗水量的主要气候因子,在1986—1991年,三个城市的气候耗水量与温度的相关性不明显,自1992年以来,气候耗水量与温度距平值的波动趋势愈来愈密切,这说明随着经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高,城市水资源消费与温度的关系越来越密切。

This paper selects Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou as the representative cities, using the climatic water consumption which is separated from the total water consumption by polynomial model and the method for statistical analysis to discuss the Change of water consumption and its relationships to economy and climate. The result shows that the water consumption per 10 000 GDP of the metropolitans is closely related to the economy, and the water consumption per 10 000 GDP will be reduced as the economic grows. The utilization ratio of Water resource in Shanghai is the highest in China, while Guangzhou is moderate and Beijing is lowest. Temperature is the main climate factor driving the climate water consumption and from 1989 to 1991 the correlation between climatic water consumption and temperature is not obvious. After then, accelerating development of the economy and the improvement of the living standard, the relationship between the climate water consumption and temperature is becoming closer and closer.