为何高油价与经济高增长并行不悖?

Why do High Oil Prices Accompany Strong Economic Growth?

历史上几次石油危机曾给世界经济带来很大的冲击,但自2002年以来,世界经济增长却呈现与高油价并行发展的新情况。数学模型验证也显示,上世纪80年代以来,油价冲击与GDP增长之间的相关关系已经趋于微弱。进一步的原因分析表明:1)经济全球化的发展,在一定程度上抑制了全球通货膨胀,而各国政府对宏观经济调控能力的不断提高,防止了高油价通过拉高通货膨胀率影响经济增长;2)美元汇率与油价的关系自2002年以来出现反转,美元贬值在一定程度上抵消了油价升高对美国经济带来的不利影响;3)高油价的成因从原来的供给冲击转变为需求拉动;4)失业率下降弱化了油价冲击的影响;5)石油在发达国家能源消费结构中的比例以及在其国民经济中的地位逐渐下降;6)主要石油消费国普遍建立了石油储备制度;7)高油价带来了产出增加及财富效应;8)石油美元回流,提高了石油资本的利用效率。

Though repeatedly impaired by oil crises previously, the world economy has been growing along with high oil prices since 2002. Mathematical models show a weakening relationship between growth in GDP and change in oil prices since the 1980s. Further analyses shows that, 1) development of the globalization has somewhat slowed global inflation, and tighter macroeconomic control by governments of various countries has reduced the possibility of high inflation caused by high oil prices; 2) the correlation between the USD exchange rate and the oil price has weakened a lot since the year 2002, while depreciation of the USD has somewhat reduced the impact of high oil prices on the US economy; 3) high oil prices have shifted from being supply-driven to being demand-driven; 4) reduced unemployment rates have weakened any shock effect of high oil prices; 5) petroleum consumption is becoming a lower percentage of total energy consumption in developed countries, and taking a lower profile in their national economies; 6) most major petroleum consumers have established a petroleum reserve system; 7) the high petroleum price has had strong output and wealth effects; and 8) petrodollar recycling has increased the efficiency of petroleum capitale xpenditure.