海水养殖的气象风险分析及预报

Meteorological Risk Analysis and Forecast to Mariculture Production

对海水养殖灾害及适生环境条件进行分析研究,确定海水养殖气象灾害风险及以盐度、海温为特征的各类海水养殖生物适生环境风险评价标准,并建立风险指标数据库;利用1968—1982年的盐度、海温、降雨、气温、风向风速资料,采用逐步回归方法,建立以相关气象要素为因子的海温、盐度预报方程,在此基础上,通过对天气的监测预报并结合风险评价标准,实现海水养殖的气象风险分析预报,为海水养殖业防灾减灾、提高产量和质量提供更有针对性的气象服务。

The disaster of the mariculture production and the suitable environment condition were studied. Then meteorological disaster risk of the mariculture production and the standard of suitable environment, characterized by seawater salinity and temperature, were confirmed. The database of the risk index was built. By using the data of seawater salinity, seawater temperature, precipitation and temperature, wind speed, wind direction and so on during 1968 to 1982, and choosing the method of the stepwise regression equations, the forecast equations of seawater temperature and seawater salinity were formulated, used meteorological elements as prediction factors. Based on it, through the weather observation and forecast and combining with the standard of the risk evaluation, the meteorological risk of the mariculture production was forecasted. In this way, more pertinent weather forecast service has been offered to prevent the disaster and improve the output and the quality of the mariculture production.