风险影响图与项目风险评价研究

Risk Influence Diagrams and Project Risk Evaluation

本文在一般型项目风险评价模型基础上，提出了风险影响日新概念，并基于此概念建立了图形分析与定量计算相结合的风险影响图评价模型．该模型为风险分析专业人员、专家、业主提供了有力的信息沟通、风险评价、风险决策工具．最后给出了风险影响图简化的一般算法．

In this paper, based on the general model of project risk evaluation, the new concept of risk influ ence diagrams is proposed. Then, such a model, connecting with diagram analysis, is put forward.This model is a powerful tool for communicating with risk analysis, experts and owners, for risk evaluation and for risk decision. At last, the paper gives a general program of simplification of risk influence diagrams.