基于协整与误差修正机制的径流预测模型研究

Annual runoff forecasting research based on the theory of cointegration and error correction model

介绍了协整分析理论，结合第二松花江流域上下游的年径流量，阐述了单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型的理论与分析方法．采用白山站和丰满站1933-1998年的年径流量资料，用协整分析的方法建立模型，对丰满站1989～1998年的年径流量进行预测研究，研究结果表明基于协整与误差修正模型进行预测是有效的．

An annual runoff forecasting method is presented based on unit root test, cointegration test and error correction model of the upper and lower reaches of the Second Songhua River. The method of cointegration analysis is applied to the annual runoff data of the Baishan and Fengman hydrology Stations; then the error correction model is set up, which can predict the annual runoff of Fengman hydrology Station from 1989 to 1998. The results show that the model based on cointegration analysis and error correction is suitable in runoff forecasting.