影响江西电网负荷预测准确率的因素分析

Reason Analyzing of Influence Accuracy on Jiangxi Power Grid Load Forecast

本文分析了影响江西电网用电负荷的诸多因素(如气象、小水电、大用户、节假日及特殊事件的影响),从加强对气象因素、负荷类型及历史数据的精细化分析入手,研究各种负荷预测方法,找到了适应江西电网目前状况的短期负荷预测方法,进而提出了提高江西电网负荷预测准确率的主要思路。

This paper analyzes many factors that influence Jiangxi power consumption ioad,Through carefully analyzing weather factor,load type and history data to research the different load forecast methods,short-time load forecast method that suit the present condition of Jiangxi electric power grid is found,further more the primary think about improving accuracy of Jiangxi electric power grid load forecast are proposed.