某型飞机平尾转轴可靠性灵敏度分析

Analysis of Reliability Sensitivity for a Horizontal Tail Torque Tube

采用了基于改进一次二阶矩法、基于Monte-Carlo直接模拟法、基于重要抽样法的可靠性灵敏度分析方法以及一种基于重要抽样的可靠性灵敏度分析方法,对某型飞机平尾转轴进行可靠性灵敏度的求解,并分析了某型飞机平尾转轴可靠性灵敏度随变异系数变化的趋势,为其可靠性设计提供了参考信息。通过4种方法结果相比较,可以说明各种方法的特点并验证了它们在工程问题上的可行性。

In this paper, an efficient reliability sensitivity analysis method based on importance sampling is presented. There are four methods, i. e. advanced first order and second moment （AFOSM） , Monte-Carlo simulation, importance sampling simulation and IS-CDF, that are respectively used to analyze the reliability and reliability sensitivity of a horizontal tail torque tube. The failure probability is computed using first three methods. The curves of the reliability sensitivity as a function of variation coefficients of the basic random variables are also worked out, which provide a reference for the reliability design of horizontal tail torque tubes to achieve the reliability targets. It is shown by comparing the results from the four methods that the their respective features are identified and the feasibility of their engineering application is demonstrated.