引发湖南特大暴雨山洪的MCS回波发展和演变

Development and Evolution of the MSC Radar Echo in Causing Super Rainstorm and Mountain Torrents in Hunan Province

由MCS引发的暴雨是造成湖南山洪地质灾害的主要因素之一。新一代天气雷达对此类天气系统有强的监测和预警能力,在对较大范围的降水估测、获取降水和降水云体的风场结构等方面有很好的应用前景。本文以2005年5月31日-6月1日湖南特大暴雨山洪过程为例,介绍了引发这次山洪地质灾害的MCS雷达回波的发展和演变,分析了回波特征与地面雨量的关系,总结了强对流发生、发展的径向速度变化,讨论了风廓线在预测强对流天气中的应用,为雷达监测、分析和预测同类灾害提供参考。

Rainstorm from MCS is the main factor in causing mountain torrents-geological disaster in Hunan province. New generation Doppler radar has highly capability of monitoring and early-warning these kinds of weather systems, it＇s application foreground is tempting in forecasting precipitation in larger areas, obtaining the wind field of raining cloud. In this paper, we took the super rainstorm occurred in Hunan province, in 31 May to 1 Jun, 2005 for example, introduced the MCS echo＇s developments and evolutions,＇ analyzed the relations between echo characteristics and real rainfall, summarized the radial velocity variety of occurrence and development of strong convection, discussed the application of wind profile in forecasting strong convection weather. Offering references in monitoring, analyzing and forecasting such kinds of disasters.