摘要
The trend of international oil price is still a hot topic in 2007. Due to so many affecting factors, the accurate forecast of oil price is difficult, which is same as the guessing game. However, there are still many people wild about forecasting. Considering present predictions of famous people, the majorities believe the price in 2007 will keep $60 level, with $10 fluctuation. Views of oil export countries and consumer countries tend to be unanimous, whereas investment banks are in favor of high price. Lehman Brothers has forecast a over $70 price in 2007. The oil prices should be determined mainly by oil supply and demand, but factors like geopolitical conflicts, natural disaster influence, terrorist activities threats and fund speculation have distorted the real balance of supply and demand in international oil market, which resulted in the surge of international oil prices. Just like OPEC’s president Purnomo Yusgiantoro says, “The current high oil prices are not because of supply and demand imbalance, but due to non- fundamental factors.” Such non-fundamental principles in 2007 will no longer affect oil price, and the price will be decided by supply-demand principle. What he says is so meaningful. In Pumomo’s opinion, oil price in 2007 will fall to around $60, whereas Iran Oil Minister announces, any price below $60 is difficult to be accepted. Maybe international oil price remains $50 to $60 per barrel in 2007 can be accepted by all sides.
The trend of international oil price is still a hot topic in 2007. Due to so many affecting factors, the accurate forecast of oil price is difficult, which is same as the guessing game. However, there are still many people wild about forecasting. Considering present predictions of famous people, the majorities believe the price in 2007 will keep $60 level, with $10 fluctuation. Views of oil export countries and consumer countries tend to be unanimous, whereas investment banks are in favor of high price. Lehman Brothers has forecast a over $70 price in 2007. The oil prices should be determined mainly by oil supply and demand, but factors like geopolitical conflicts, natural disaster influence, terrorist activities threats and fund speculation have distorted the real balance of supply and demand in international oil market, which resulted in the surge of international oil prices. Just like OPEC’s president Purnomo Yusgiantoro says, “The current high oil prices are not because of supply and demand imbalance, but due to non- fundamental factors.” Such non-fundamental principles in 2007 will no longer affect oil price, and the price will be decided by supply-demand principle. What he says is so meaningful. In Pumomo’s opinion, oil price in 2007 will fall to around $60, whereas Iran Oil Minister announces, any price below $60 is difficult to be accepted. Maybe international oil price remains $50 to $60 per barrel in 2007 can be accepted by all sides.
出处
《中国石油企业》
2006年第12期59-63,10,共5页
China Petroleum Enterprise
