摘要
运营成本是影响铁路建设项目后评价结论的重要基础数据。通过建立转移函数模型对铁路建设项目后评价时点后的运营有关成本进行预测,并对某铁路建设项目进行实证分析,说明采用转移函数模型的预测效果明显在回归模型的基础上有所改进,能较好地反映出有关成本的变化趋势,从而达到较好的预测效果。
Operation cost is an important basic data that has great influence on the post-evaluation result of railway construction projects. The essay introduces that the operation cost after the dedicated time point for post-evaluaUon of railway construction project is forecasted through establishing the transfer function model. The essay also analyzes certain railway construction project as a case study to show that the forecast effect of applying transfer function model is obviously improved on the basis of regression model and could better reflect the change trend of relative cost.
出处
《铁道运输与经济》
北大核心
2007年第1期7-9,13,共4页
Railway Transport and Economy
关键词
铁路
建设项目
运营成本
预测
转移函数模型
railway
construction project
operation cost
forecast, transfer function model
