间接估计技术在特殊区域人口预测中的应用——以杭州经济技术开发区为例

the Application of the Population Estimate-indirectly in Special Zones

特殊区域的人口预测,需要用特殊的方法。结合特殊区域人口的个性特点,创造性地应用间接估计技术进行人口预测,是人口学的一项重要任务。对我国经济技术开发区人口发展进行科学预测,对促进开发区社会经济持续、稳定、协调发展具有十分重要的战略意义。杭州经济技术开发区具有独特的个性,但应用间接估计技术进行特殊区域人口预测的原理和方法,却有普遍的意义。结果表明,只要方法得当,参数科学,特殊区域的人口发展态势和规律同样可以进行科学的预测,为特殊区域规划建设提供重要的依据。

Forecasting the population of special -area needs special methods to deal with. Combined with individual characters of special - area population, it is a great mission for Demology to apply the method of population estimate- indirectly creatively. China economic and technic developing- area just pertains to such kind of area. Forecasting popttlation development in these areas scientifically will creat strategic significance of accelerating economy to develop pensistontly, stabily and harmonionaly. Although economic and technic developing -area of Hangzhou has its unique character, there is general significance to apply the principle of this method. The result shows that if choose proper method and scientifical parameter, the trend and discipline of population developmont in special- area con be forecasted scientifically, and provide important grounds for area- programming.